Over 55% of Elephant Deaths Happen Within 6 km of Water

Across Africa, elephants are dying—but not always at the hands of poachers. In Zimbabwe’s Hwange National Park, scientists found something surprising: most elephant deaths occur within six kilometers of water. The very lifeline that sustains them might also be sealing their fate.

When Survival Turns Deadly

In the dry season, Hwange National Park transforms into a shimmering mosaic of heat and dust. Elephants—thirsty and travel-worn—trudge miles toward shrinking pools and boreholes. For them, water is everything: a place to drink, bathe, and cool their massive bodies.

But Blessing Kavhu and colleagues discovered that these waterholes can also become silent traps. Using advanced machine learning models and data from 2020–2022, the team mapped where elephants naturally die—and found a consistent pattern. Over half of all deaths happened close to water.

At first glance, it seems counterintuitive. Why would elephants—masters of migration and adaptation—perish near their most vital resource? The answer lies in the intersection of climate, ecology, and sheer physiology.

A Machine-Learning Lens on Life and Death

To uncover these patterns, researchers didn’t just count carcasses. They turned to artificial intelligence—specifically, ensemble machine learning models combining Random Forest, MaxEnt, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost methods.

Each algorithm had its own strengths, but together they formed a clearer, more reliable picture. Their combined “ensemble” model predicted elephant mortality hotspots with an accuracy rate of 83%—a level of precision that can guide future conservation decisions.

Think of it as nature’s heat map of risk. By layering data on vegetation, temperature, water distance, and elephant density, the model revealed where and why elephants are most vulnerable. The strongest predictor wasn’t temperature or elevation—it was distance from water.

Why Water Kills

Here’s where the story turns from ecology to tragedy.

During droughts, elephants crowd around the last remaining waterholes. These spots often become warm, stagnant, and loaded with nutrients—the perfect breeding ground for toxic cyanobacteria. In 2020, such blooms were linked to the deaths of over 350 elephants in neighboring Botswana. The same mechanism may be quietly unfolding in Hwanges41598-025-19902-x.

Crowding also increases the spread of disease. Bacterial infections like Pasteurella septicaemia can jump quickly between animals in close quarters. Add to that thermal stress, especially when temperatures soar past 35°C, and you have the perfect storm: dehydration, immune failure, and death.

Even the youngest elephants are at risk. Calves can’t travel as far as adults to find safer water sources, and sometimes die simply because they can’t dig deep enough to reach cooler groundwater.

“But here’s where it gets interesting…”

Some deaths also happen in high-elevation areas—steeper, energy-intensive terrain where elephants expend more energy reaching food and water. The study estimates elephants use 25 times more energy climbing slopes than walking on flat ground. When resources run low, those extra calories can be fatal.

Beyond Poaching: The New Face of Elephant Conservation

For decades, conservation has focused rightly on stopping poachers. But as this study shows, natural deaths—especially from environmental stress—can outnumber human-caused ones during bad years.

That means saving elephants isn’t just about policing ivory trade. It’s about anticipating how climate change reshapes survival itself. In a hotter, drier world, elephants will rely even more on artificial boreholes and shrinking rivers. If these sites become bacterial or toxic hotspots, wildlife managers need early-warning systems—essentially, “risk maps” of waterholes likely to turn deadly.

The researchers suggest practical fixes:

• Monitor water quality during droughts to detect cyanobacteria early.
• Use solar pumps to circulate water and reduce stagnation.
• Prioritize reintroduction sites with lower mortality risk, far from known hotspots.

These strategies might sound high-tech, but they can be implemented with basic tools—GPS data, drone imagery, and local ranger expertise.

A Lesson for a Changing Planet

Kavhu’s team doesn’t stop at elephants. Their study is also a glimpse into the future of conservation science. By combining traditional field patrols with AI-driven spatial models, even countries with limited resources can predict ecological crises before they unfold.

And the implications stretch far beyond Zimbabwe. From India’s drought-stricken reserves to Kenya’s parched savannas, the same story is playing out: when water disappears, wildlife gathers—and risk follows.

“But the question remains…”

Can we design ecosystems where water sustains life without amplifying death?

Let’s Explore Together

This research shows how a single variable—distance to water—can shape life and death for one of Earth’s most intelligent species. It’s a reminder that conservation isn’t just about fences and funding—it’s about understanding patterns before they become catastrophes.

What do you think?

• Could these findings help protect elephants in your region?
• How might similar modeling approaches help manage drought risks for other wildlife?
• If you were part of this research team, what factor would you study next—disease, pollution, or behavior?

Let’s keep the conversation going. Science is strongest when it’s shared.