The Human Cost of Policy: A Closer Look at Mediterranean Migration

by Jon Scaccia April 29, 2024

The Mediterranean Sea, often romanticized in literature and history, is today the setting of one of the most perilous migration routes in the world. The Central Mediterranean route, from Libya to Italy, has seen over half a million attempted crossings since 2014, making it a focal point of international migration policy debates.

A recent study by Hoffmann Pham and Komiyama in PLoS ONE analyzes how changes in border enforcement influence migrants’ decisions and smugglers’ tactics, offering insights crucial for policymakers and humanitarian organizations alike.

Changes in Border Policy and Their Impact

The paper highlights a significant shift in migration patterns around mid-2017 when the Libyan Coast Guard, supported by the EU, intensified efforts to intercept migrant boats. This policy change aimed to reduce the number of boats reaching Europe but brought unintended consequences.

Deterrence and Diversion

The research found a clear “deterrence effect” — a reduction in the number of attempts to cross the Mediterranean due to increased interceptions. However, a “diversion effect” was also noticeable, as migrants sought alternative routes, such as the Western Mediterranean passage from Morocco to Spain, which, while shorter, remains perilous.

Smuggler Adaptations

Under increased interception threats, smugglers modified their strategies, choosing smaller, less detectable boats over larger, more conspicuous ones. This adaptation potentially reduces the immediate risk of interception but doesn’t necessarily lessen the danger to migrants, as smaller boats are less stable and more prone to capsizing.

Analyzing Smuggler Decisions

The strategic model discussed in the study offers a profound look into the decision-making processes of smugglers, which, at first glance, might appear to be driven purely by desperation or opportunism. However, this model reveals that the choices made by these smugglers are anything but simple; they are calculated decisions that balance risk and reward in a high-stakes environment.

The Strategic Model Explained

Smugglers, when deciding on the size and loading of a boat, must weigh the immediate financial gains against the potential long-term repercussions. Overloading a boat increases immediate revenue since more passengers translate into more payments. This strategy, however, comes with heightened risks. Not only are the overloaded boats more prone to capsizing or being detected by authorities, but frequent failures can also tarnish a smuggler’s reputation, affecting their ability to attract future business.

Long-Term Costs of Failed Crossings

The long-term costs of failed crossings are multifaceted. Firstly, there is the direct financial loss associated with the boat itself, often a significant investment that is lost if the boat is intercepted or capsizes. Secondly, failed crossings can lead to a loss of life, drawing increased scrutiny from international authorities and non-governmental organizations, which can tighten surveillance and enforcement. This heightened scrutiny makes future operations more hazardous and less likely to succeed.

Sophisticated Calculations Behind the Decisions

The model considers these factors in a quantitative framework, assigning probabilities and expected outcomes to different scenarios. Smugglers are modeled not just as individuals making ad-hoc decisions, but as rational actors who evaluate the expected utility of different choices based on various outcomes, including the likelihood of boat interception, the potential for rescue, and the physical limits of the boats.

For instance, as enforcement increases, the model predicts a shift towards using smaller boats, which are less likely to be detected but may not be significantly safer for the journey. This shift is a strategic response to external pressures, balancing the smuggler’s risk of capture against the potential payoff from successful crossings.

The Role of Data and Policy Implications

This research underscores the value of integrating different data types — from individual incidents to aggregate migration flows — to understand complex migratory dynamics fully. Such analyses are vital for crafting policies that effectively manage migration without exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Moving Forward

As Europe continues to grapple with the challenges of Mediterranean migration, this study serves as a reminder of the complex interplay between policy enforcement and human desperation. It calls for a nuanced approach that balances border security with humanitarian needs, ensuring that policies do not inadvertently put more lives at risk.

The findings also suggest that international cooperation and comprehensive data sharing are essential for addressing the root causes of migration and for creating safer, legal pathways for asylum seekers.

Encouraging Engagement

We invite our readers to reflect on the implications of these findings. How can nations balance security concerns with humanitarian obligations? What roles can non-governmental organizations play in mitigating the risks faced by migrants? Share your thoughts and suggestions in the comments below or on our social media platforms.

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About the Author

Jon Scaccia, with a Ph.D. in clinical-community psychology and a research fellowship at the US Department of Health and Human Services with expertise in public health systems and quality programs. He specializes in implementing innovative, data-informed strategies to enhance community health and development. Jon helped develop the R=MC² readiness model, which aids organizations in effectively navigating change.